Risk of bird flu pandemic probably growing

Reuters’ web site reported, on May 6th 2008, that the risk of a bird flu pandemic was possibly growing. There was a meeting of 150 experts, hosted by WHO, to give an update on how to defence against a deadly global epidemic. It said,

The risk of a human influenza pandemic remains real and is probably growing as the bird flu virus becomes entrenched in poultry in more countries

The H5N1 avian flu virus has infected flocks in much of Asia, Africa and parts of Europe. Experts fear it could mutate into a form that passes easily from person to person, sparking an influenza pandemic that could kill millions.

There is also some interesting information about the number of human deaths so far.

The avian flu virus rarely infects people, but there have been 382 human cases worldwide since 2003, 241 of them fatal, according to the WHO, a United Nations agency.

The WHO has an alert level that is used to show the likelihood of another influenza pandemic. They say,

The WHO uses six phases of pandemic alert to gauge levels of threat. The world is currently in phase 3, meaning that a new influenza virus sub-type is causing disease in humans but is not yet spreading efficiently.

From the WHO web site these levels are as follows.

1: Low risk of human cases.
2: Higher risk of human cases.
3: No or very limited human-to-human transmission.
4: Evidence of increased human-to-human transmission.
5: Evidence of significant human-to-human transmission.
6: Efficient and sustained human-to-human transmission.

Are 382 human deaths over the last 5 years really something to be fearful of?