Arctic ice 'is at tipping point'

The BBC web site, on the 28th of August 2008, had an article about the shrinking Arctic ice cape, and how it is now at the “tipping point” of disaster. It says,

Arctic sea ice has shrunk to the second smallest extent since satellite records began, US scientists have revealed.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) says that the ice-covered area has fallen below its 2005 level, which was the second lowest on record.

Melting has occurred earlier in the year than usual, meaning that the iced area could become even smaller than last September, the lowest recorded.

Researchers say the Arctic is now at a climatic "tipping point".

"We could very well be in that quick slide downwards in terms of passing a tipping point," said Mark Serreze, a senior scientist at the Colorado-based NSIDC.

"It's tipping now. We're seeing it happen now," he told the Associated Press news agency.

A few years ago, scientists were predicting ice-free Arctic summers by about 2080.

Then computer models started projecting earlier dates, around 2030 to 2050; and some researchers now believe it could happen within five years.

Then they say something very interesting indeed.

Last September, the ice covered just 4.13 million sq km (1.59 million sq miles), the smallest extent seen since satellite imaging began 30 years ago.

They have only been looking at the Arctic ice for 30 years. What they are seeing could all be down to long term cycles where the ice shrinks and grows over time. 30 years is small fraction of time in the life of natural global climate changes.